MGM Resorts International’s Japanese IR development, MGM Osaka, could ultimately generate US$2 billion in annual EBITDA – of which US$800 million would be attributable to MGM – according to Truist Securities.
The investment bank issued the forecast as part of an investor note on Wednesday in which it upgraded MGM from “Hold” to “Buy” and upped its target price from US$42 to US$55.
While this was mainly due to improved consumer sentiment around Las Vegas, Truist analyst Barry Jonas said the company’s diversification was also a positive, specifically its Macau resorts and Japan – even through the latter was not yet a focus.
“MGM’s Macau properties have earned more than their fair share in the market, steadily gaining market share,” Jonas wrote.
“While MGM’s US$10 billion Osaka Japan joint venture project may be out of focus for investors until closer to its planned 2030 opening, we think this could ultimately be a catalyst for the shares. The project could ultimately hit US$2 billion in EBITDA of which MGM would record around US$800 million.”
The forecast echoes similar comments from MGM Resorts CEO and President Bill Hornbuckle who told investors on a 2025 earnings call that he anticipates MGM Osaka will generate more than US$2 billion in annual EBITDA, likely from day one.
More broadly speaking, Truist said that surveys it has recently conducted – a Las Vegas Consumer Perception survey and a Strip room rate survey – had given it more confidence overall for a positive MGM Strip inflection on top of a strong market-wide event calendar and easier summer comps.
“The Strip has seen about two years of challenging growth dynamics, attributable to a host of items including reduced air capacity, value perceptions, international visitation issues, inflation and general macro weakness,” Jonas said.
“As we approach 2Q26, we think comps have eased and RevPAR trends can improve. More importantly, EBITDA can return to year-on-year growth while overall investor expectations remain modest.”
He added, “Per our consumer sentiment survey, sentiment was more positive than we thought, especially around value perception. Some favorable datapoints include: 74% of respondents have positive views of Vegas from a value perspective, 88% like the concept of all-inclusive pricing, 65% say their perception has improved over the last few years, and 78% plan to visit in the next 12 months. Further, the MGM Grand was our respondents’ most selected hotel destination in our survey at 11%.”
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