Macau’s gross gaming revenue through the eight days of Golden Week from 1 to 8 October grew 49% on September numbers and 9% year-on-year to around MOP$8.5 billion, according to brokerage Sanford C Bernstein.
But mass market revenue looks to have come in below expectations, with growth in the “low single digits” bringing overall GGR down from pre-Golden Week estimates of a low double digit increase.
Although visitation to Macau during the eight days was up 10.3% year-on-year and arrivals from mainland China up 11.0%, “reasonably strong visitation growth did not correspond to strong mass GGR growth,” according to Bernstein analysts.
“According to our channel checks, VIP volumes were weak during the first half of the week, but picked up to mid-teens year-on-year growth for the whole week largely driven by high VIP hold rate,” they said. “Mass GGR was up by in the range of low-single digits % year-on-year.
“While GGR was generally in-line with our expectations, the mix was poorer than we had expected and mass was disappointing.”
Bernstein estimates an average daily rate (ADR) of MOP$1.06 billion during Golden Week, which compares with MOP$975 million in the same period in 2016 and MOP$712 million through September.
Those results suggest Macau’s October GGR will come at MOP$23.7 billion to MOP$24.3 billion, an increase of between 8.5% and 11.5%.
