By Ben Blaschke
Macau’s gross gaming revenue has risen by 16.3% year-on-year in April, up to MOP$20.16 billion from MOP$17.3 billion 12 months ago.
The figures, released by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, took Macau’s 2017 total to MOP$83.6 billion – a rise of 13.8% on the first four months of 2016. It also represented the ninth straight month of year-on-year growth and the third straight month of beating consensus.
Analysts again put the April result down to stronger than expected VIP volumes, with Sanford C Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Yang Xie calculating average daily revenue over the final seven days of the month of MOP$710 million across all sectors – boosting monthly ADR to MOP$672 million after a slow start.
Similar growth is expected through at least June before potentially slowing in 3Q, according to Union Gaming’s Grant Govertsen.
“With the beginning of May representing a Chinese public holiday (Labor Day), we expect strong GGR growth to be maintained. We are currently forecasting 15% growth in May, followed by 17% growth in June,” he said in a Monday release.
“The May calendar is unfavorable with one fewer Sunday and the June calendar is favorable with one additional Friday. In addition it is important to note that China’s #3 politician, the Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Zhang Dejiang, will be in Macau from May 8-10, which will likely put a slight damper on VIP trends.
“Further, Xi Jinping’s visit to Hong Kong in July will have a similar effect. Heading into 3Q we expect the GGR growth rate to moderate into the mid-teens, and then into the low double digits in 4Q. Heading into the summer months we are also looking for a somewhat sharper shift in GGR geographical mix. With the benefit of new supply Cotai now constitutes a majority of Macau-wide GGR.”
