Downstate New York’s three full casino licensees could generate annual gaming revenues of up to US$5.6 billion annually under a bull case scenario, while more than 70% of resort-wide revenues are seen coming from gaming, according to a detailed analysis of the market by CBRE Institutional Research.
The analysis also predicts a ramp-up period of no more than three years due to existing gaming demand and a market that is “ripe for new supply”, with Genting’s Resorts World New York City (RWNYC) boasting potential to outperform given it will offer gaming tables a full five years before its fellow licensees.
CBRE’s report comes after New York’s Gaming Facility Location Board (GFLB) confirmed in December Genting Malaysia’s RWNYC, Bally’s Corp in the Bronx and the partnership between New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and Hard Rock International in Metropolitan Park as the three recipients of a full New York casino license.
Both Bally’s and Hard Rock will develop integrated resorts from scratch, while Genting will invest around US$5 billion to transform its existing racino into an IR by 2031. It will, however, launch some gaming tables by mid-2026.
According to CBRE, the base case GGR estimate for the Downstate New York market upon full maturity post-2031 – when all three IRs are expected to be operational – is US$4.7 billion, making it the second-largest US gaming market behind only the Las Vegas Strip. This, said analysts Colin Mansfield and Connor Parks, is supported by a range of assumptions on slot and table utilization rates, which they believe should rival other market-leading casinos across major gaming markets, including Las Vegas.
“The proposed gaming floors are massive with some of the largest table footprints, if not the largest, seen in regional gaming with over 200, 400 and 500 planned at Bally’s Bronx, [Hard Rock] and RWNYC, respectively,” they explained.
While the bear case scenario sees GGR at around US$4.1 billion, bull case is above US$5.6 billion with potential for further upside.
“The Downstate New York market is significantly underpenetrated and there is a strong case for each of the three projects to be among the highest revenue-generating casinos across regional gaming,” CBRE said.
“The area’s population density and slot machine performance support attractive WPD (Win Per Day) metrics for the future Downstate New York market, despite the meaningful amount of gaming positions proposed. The market is ripe for new supply, and we do not believe it will be oversaturated despite the addition of over 1,000 table games and 8,000 incremental slot machines.
“Each location benefits from a high volume of passerby traffic, non-gaming-specific reasons to visit, and a large population base within a reasonable drive-to and/or train-to radius.”
RWNYC should specifically benefit from its high amount of daily traffic past the location, good proximity to a heavily populated area and two MTA subway stops nearby – one of which is one subway stop from JFK Airport.
“RWNYC should also benefit from having existing casino infrastructure in place and an already established customer base, as the proposed project is an expansion of the existing facility rather than a ground-up development,” CBRA stated in its report. “This should support consistent cash flow through construction, as business is expected to remain open and ongoing. RWNYC will also benefit from a first-mover advantage with its future full-scale casino license.”
Notably, the analysts expect the three Downstate New York IRs to drive substantial revenue via their non-gaming attractions, although unlike Las Vegas gaming is still expected to be the main revenue driver at around 72% on average.
This is, in part, because the 3,470 rooms across the three properties are unlikely to try and compete with New York City’s already substantial cash-paying-customer model and will instead be largely reserved to drive gaming demand.
On the properties’ non-gaming potential, Mansfield and Parks wrote, “Assuming a base case GGR estimate of nearly US$5 billion, we think it is reasonable to expect over US$1 billion of combined net revenue across the three projects from hotel rooms, F&B, retail, convention and other entertainment.
The Downstate casinos will also cater to out-of-town visitors, given NYC’s tourism draw (65 million in 2025), as well as the offering, quality and operators of each property. This differs from a typical localized regional property, but we still believe the gaming versus non-gaming mix will be similar, with most demand coming from locals.
“This contrasts with Las Vegas, where gaming accounts for less than one-third of Strip property revenue. We do not expect Downstate New York to resemble the Vegas model – these will remain gaming-dominated properties, especially given the higher margins associated with gaming versus hotel or ancillary spending.
“Because of this strategy, casino properties typically exhibit high occupancy even if it pressures ADR. However, we believe the three properties could see ADR upside during the initial ramp period due to strong demand and the novelty factor.
“We expect meaningful variability in ADR over time, including potential upside, as operators refine their strategies and better understand the depth of the gaming market.”
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