JP Morgan analysts said they remain cautious on Genting Singapore and warned investors may not give the company much slack following another disappointing quarter in which Singapore market share slipped to an all-time low in 4Q25. EBITDA also hit a three-year low, even when adjusted for luck.
While Genting Singapore management cited in its FY25 results announcement Tuesday the impact of ongoing upgrade works across many of its attractions and hospitality facilities last year, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian described the performance as a “letdown across the board” after the incredibly strong performance of cross-town rival Marina Bay Sands (MBS) had inspired some hope of a similar rise at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS).
In an overnight note, the investment bank observed that Adjusted Property EBITDA of SG$179 million (US$140 million) was down 25% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter to be less than 20% of MBS’s profit. Luck-adjusted EBITDA “fared little better” at SG$214 million.
Although bad debt provisions ran unusually high at between SG$55 million to SG$60 million, “after a string of disappointments, we doubt investors will give the company much slack,” the analysts wrote.
More worrying is the continued decline in market share, with VIP down 13% quarter-on-quarter to 30% and mass/slot share down 1 percentage point to 24%. As such, total luck-adjusted GGR share was down to a record-low of 25%.
“The gap with MBS continues to widen,” JP Morgan said. “MBS generated over 5x GGR and over 5x EBITDA compared to GENS in 4Q – despite both having similar capacity and scale.”
Nomura’s Tushar Mohata and Alpa Aggarwal were a little more forgiving, stating, “While FY25 performance has disappointed, in hindsight, we were perhaps too optimistic about the pace of ramp-up from new facilities in 2025. Furthermore, new management has used FY25 to front-load the earnings hit from trade receivables review (higher impairments in 4Q25), investment portfolio fair value losses and promotional expenses/rental discounts related to new facilities, which should taper off in FY26F, making us more confident about the FY26F recovery.”
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