Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) has suffered year-on-year declines for the past four months in a row, however Macau’s Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said there is currently no consideration being given to lowering the government’s GGR forecast for 2026.
Last year, the Macau government projected the total GGR for this year to reach MOP$236 billion (US$29.2 billion). GGR from January to September inclusive was MOP$187.1 billion (US$23.1 billion), leaving a gap of MOP$48.9 billion (US$6.05 billion) to achieve the government’s target. This means monthly GGR from October to December must average MOP$16.3 billion (US$2.02 billion) to meet expectations – a target that the market should comfortably hit.
Speaking to local media on Saturday while attending the Government Headquarters Open Day, Sam Hou Fai acknowledged that year-on-year comparisons had been difficult in recent months.
“From 2023 to 2025, GGR maintained steady growth, but it began to pull back in the second quarter of this year,” he said.
Sam further indicated that October’s GGR figure will be crucial, expressing hope that full-year GGR will meet expectations while reiterating that there are currently no plans to alter the forecast.
“Whether the reasons behind the decline represent a cyclical phase, are impacts brought about by adjustments in the external economy and neighboring stock and real estate markets, or whether the gaming industry has already reached a relatively high plateau … we have no definitive conclusion at this time and will continue to monitor it closely,” he explained.
The government’s 2026 GGR forecast represents a monthly average of MOP$19.67 billion (US$2.43 billion). For the first nine months of the year combined, the average currently sits at MOP$20.79 billion (US$2.57 billion), with only June and September falling below the required monthly target.
The government does have precedent in lowering its GGR projections, however, having in June 2025 revised its FY25 forecast down from MOP$240 billion (US$29.7 billion) to MOP$228 billion (US$28.2 billion).
Ultimately, Macau’s actual full-year GGR for 2025 reached MOP$247.4 billion (US$30.6 billion).
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