Citigroup’s latest monthly Macau premium mass gaming table survey produced results the investment bank says were “among the worst in recent history,” although this could be due to players postponing trips ahead of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and National Day “Golden Week” holiday.
In a Monday note, Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said Macau’s casino floors were in general quieter even than three months ago at the start of the World Cup, with total premium mass wager observed down 45% year-on-year to HK$6.8 million (US$867,000) and the number of players 20% lower at 401. This, they added, implies that average wager per player fell 31% year-on-year to HK$16,958 (US$2,162).
The 14 “whales” spotted was 17 fewer than the previous month and 13 fewer than September 2025.
However, Choi and Chai said they “cannot firmly conclude whether the weak results are a function of players’ lowered willingness to spend or the unfavorable timing of our survey – conducted one week before the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and two weeks before the National Day ‘Golden Week’ holiday.
“Recall, two years ago, most investors turned pessimistic on Macau after seeing the disappointing September 24 GGR, but they subsequently realized that many players decided to postpone their Macau trips for the Andy Lau concert during the National Day Golden Week that year, which led to strong October 2024 GGR.”
Despite this and admitting a conservative approach, Citi is lowering its September GGR estimate from MOP$19.0 billion (US$2.42 billion) to MOP$18.0 billion (US$2.29 billion), which would see 3Q26 GGR down 4% over the same quarter last year.
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