Investment group CLSA has pared back its 2027 Macau forecast by 4% from earlier predictions, with gross gaming revenue now expected to grow by only 2% year-on-year.
In a detailed report, analyst Jeffrey Kiang explained that CLSA had become more cautious on Macau’s gaming revenue outlook because it has not seen enough supportive macro indicators.
More specifically, Kiang noted that its gross profit indicator for upstream sectors in China – which typically leads Macau GGR levels by around six months – had been hurt by higher oil prices since February, with the broader Chinese economy failing to provide enough evidence for accelerating demand in Macau. As such, an anticipated recovery in GGR was being pushed back, reflecting this more cautious approach.
“Although there was notable recovery in Macau’s GGR and visitations after the World Cup, we do not think macros are supportive enough to drive incremental growth from the current revenue run-rate, despite cyclical factors such as low base effect in summer 2026 (due to World Cup) and possible mean reversion in VIP win rates,” CLSA wrote.
“As such, we become more cautious and lower our 2027 and 2028 GGR. We expect GGR to grow only 2.4% year-on-year to MOP$259.2 billion (US$32.1 billion) in 2027, followed by 4.3% growth to MOP$270.4 billion (US$33.4 billion) in 2028.”
The investment group added that its 2026 net forecast remains slightly largely unchanged at MOP$253.2 billion (US$31.3 billion), with the September projection raised to 1.7% year-on-year growth to MOP$18.6 billion (US$2.30 billion) off an easy base, offset by a slight cut for 4Q26.
