After Macau’s July gaming revenue figures were, as expected, impacted by the World Cup and adverse weather, the short-term outlook may be a little more encouraging with Seaport Research Partners forecasting 4.5% year-on-year GGR growth in August.
In a Monday morning note, Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky said the year-on-year improvement – which if accurate would put August GGR at a year-long high of MOP$23.2 billion – is to be driven by a rebound in demand as some customer return after deferring trips during the World Cup. Umansky also sees September GGR rising 11% year-on-year, pushing 3Q26 GGR to a 1.8% increase.
J.P. Morgan remains a little more circumspect in its estimates, with analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielson and Michael Hirsch expecting August GGR to come in flat year-on-year at MOP$22.2 billion), followed by a 6% increase in September.
“The key question,” the wrote, “is how much of the recent step up in demand that MGM referenced [in its earnings call last week] is market-wide versus company specific, and the sustainability of the pickup in demand.”
While 2025 growth comparisons ease up slightly from now, the analysts observe that 4Q25 GGR was up 15% year-on-year on strong VIP play and hold, “so our concern is that any near-term acceleration in GGR growth could be limited.”
On July’s GGR result, Seaport stated its belief that VIP hold was high during the month, albeit lower than July 2025, and that mass GGR declined less than VIP.
