Maybank Investment Bank says it anticipates a weaker performance from Genting Malaysia Bhd when the casino operator releases its 2Q26 financial results next month, with historical negative seasonality to be further magnified by the impact of the Middle East war and diverted gaming spend during the World Cup.
This, said analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang, has led Maybank to slash its FY26 earnings forecast by 28%, adding, “We do not discount the possibility that Genting Malaysia may report a 2Q26 core net loss.”
In a note previewing the company’s Q2 results, Yin said, “Traditionally, 2Q is a seasonally weak quarter post-Chinese New Year. Yet we understand from channel checks that 2Q26 will be an unusually weak one.
“First, we understand that high diesel prices caused by the Middle East War dented VIP and mass market gaming at RWG. Second, the Middle East War could have discouraged Middle Easterners and gamblers who transit there from gambling at Genting UK’s London VIP clubs.
“Third, the FIFA World Cup diverted gaming spend from [Malaysia’s] Resorts World Genting and Genting UK.”
Despite the negative short-term outlook, Maybank said it was only trimming its 2027 and 2028 forecasts by 4% each, mainly because it expects the headwinds to be temporary. It also sees rapidly improving contribution from Resorts World New York City (RWNYC) following the recent launch of table game operations and ongoing expansion works.
“Since deploying table games on 28 Apr, RWNYC table games weekly GGR has hit US$11.1 million (from US$4.9 million during opening week) which implies average daily GGR per table of US$6,539 – a whole US$1,000 above our forecast of US$5,500 as operations ramp up,” Yin wrote.
“Slot machines GGR have been cannibalized by 12% since opening week but table games attract a lower gaming tax rate of 30% versus 56% for slot machines. Thus, the GGR mix is net positive to Genting Malaysia.”
Maybank is now forecasting Genting Malaysia to generate revenue of MYR13.1 billion (US$3.20 billion) and EBITDA of MYR3.18 billion (US$778 million) in 2026, rising to MYR15.7 billion (US$3.84 billion) and MYR3.98 billion (US$974 million) in 2027 and then MYR17.4 billion (US$4.26 billion) and MYR4.34 billion (US$1.06 billion) in 2028.
Genting Malaysia is scheduled to release its 2Q26 results on 20 August.
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