Industry analysts have continued revising down their Macau GGR forecasts for 2026, citing the significant impact of World Cup “spending diversion” through June and July.
With June’s results having missed consensus at MOP$18.5 billion, Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei said in a Monday note that they expect Macau’s FY26 GGR to show 5% growth versus 2025, down from their previous forecast of 6.8% growth.
Likewise, CLSA cut its forecast from 4% growth to 2% growth in 2026, impacted by its bearish view that GGR will decline by 12% year-on-year in July. Jefferies is expecting an 8% decline.
According to Ling and Pei, Adjusted EBITDA margin will remain challenging when 2Q26 results season kicks off in the coming week due to slower GGR growth.
However, “We expect GGR to recover from August,” they wrote. “For the rest of the year, we still saw tougher comps as the wealth effect from new IPO listings started benefitting luxury sales and GGR spending since mid-2025.”
Despite anticipating an 8% year-on-year GGR decline in July Jefferies is forecasting 2% growth for 3Q26 and 4% in Q4, resulting in its 5% FY26 forecast.
