Citigroup analysts are forecasting a 7% year-on-year decline in Macau’s 2Q26 industry EBITDA ahead of the upcoming results season, citing the impact of the football World Cup and “extremely unfavorable hold rates.”
Describing Q2 as “arguably Macau’s toughest quarter since reopening,” analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said their anticipated US$1.92 billion in industrywide EBITDA would be the lowest level since 3Q24, reflecting GGR of MOP$61.0 billion which was the lowest since 1Q25.
Industry EBITDA margin is seen falling by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to around 25.8% – mainly reflecting the operating deleverage from the lower- than-theoretical VIP hold.
However, the Citi analysts also observed that such negative sentiment already appears to be baked into share prices and are expecting a strong rebound post-World Cup thanks to a “star-studded” concert and event calendar in Q3 and Q4.
According to their forecasts, MGM China and SJM Resorts are likely the two operators with the largest quarter-on-quarter market share improvements – MGM thanks to the recent opening of new hotel suites and its Master Club VIP gaming area at MGM COTAI, and SJM because its peninsula properties played luckier than peers.
