Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating of SJM Holdings Ltd (SJMH) from “BB-” to “B+” due to slower EBITDA growth, which it attributes to the dilution of SJM’s Macau market share from the closure of satellite casinos and continued lackluster performance at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP).
The ratings agency said that SJM’s recently announced market share of 9.6% in 1Q26 following the closure of satellite casinos was below Fitch’s previous assumption of 10.7% for this year. While SJM management is targeting higher market share by increasing utilization on the returned satellite tables – including opening new gaming areas at GLP and Casino Lisboa – Fitch said it now expects market share to range between 9.7% and 9.8% through 2028.
The downgrade in SJM’s rating reflects Fitch’s updated view that the Macau concessionaire’s leverage trajectory is no longer consistent with its previous rating level. As such, Fitch said it now expects leverage metrics to remain outside of its “BB-” threshold in the next two years because of slower EBITDA growth.
However, it added that EBITDA should still improve gradually in improved margin following the cessation of the low-margin satellite model and recapturing some business through self-operated casinos, including the recently acquired L’Arc Casino.
“We see further EBITDA margin improvement from cost reduction through natural attrition and redeployment of the satellite staff,” Fitch said.
“We forecast Fitch-adjusted EBITDA of HK$3.7 billion in 2026 and HK$4.2 billion in 2027.”
The agency also highlighted the slowing growth of GLP as a concern. Mass volume growth at the Cotai integrated resort has fallen from 17% in 2Q25 to 11% in 3Q25 and 3% in 4Q25, followed by a 1% year-on-year decline in 1Q26.
“We expect GLP’s market share to remain at around the current mid-2% level, amid a competitive environment and limitations in product offering,” Fitch said.
