New data published by the Philippines Department of Tourism (DOT) this week shows inbound visitor arrivals to the Philippines growing 10.43% year-on-year to 1,828,657 in the first three quarters of 2026, including a substantial 56.5% rise in arrivals from mainland China to 114,377.
The figures are based on residency and differ significantly from initial tourism data released by the DOT a week ago which showed a much smaller 2.6% increase in foreign visitor arrivals and declines in visitation from both China and South Korea. IAG understands those figures were based on citizenship rather than residency.
The new data paints a far rosier picture, lifting the share of mainland Chinese arrivals from 4.7% in 1Q25 to 6.3% this time around. It also sees China move back into fourth spot among the Philippines’ top source tourism markets behind South Korea, the USA and Japan.
In a note, Maybank Securities said the improvement from China reflects early traction from policy measures such as visa-free entry and the rollout of e-visas.
“As China accounted for 21% of arrivals pre-pandemic, further normalization remains a key upside lever, supported by recent efforts to ‘reset’ Philippines-China ties and ongoing bilateral trade engagement under the current administration.”
The residency data also shows a much more subdued 5.87% year-on-year decline in arrivals from South Korea in Q1 to 373,024, compared with the 10.2% decline reported last week.
The Philippines has targeted both China and South Korea as tourism targets this year in order to address recent visitation falls, although Maybank noted that the positive 1Q26 result comes with some headwinds on the horizon.
“Elevated jet fuel costs continue to pressure fares and margins and may weigh on higher-yield, long-haul travel demand,” wrote analyst Ronalyn Joyce Lalimo.
“Any de-escalation would provide upside through lower fuel costs and improved sentiment.”
Lalimo also pointed to the recent appointment of Dita Angara-Mathay as the Philippines’ new tourism secretary as signaling a pivot to higher-value Asian markets.
“Policy tailwinds remain supportive: expanded e-visa coverage (now open to 12 nationalities including China), a VAT refund scheme for foreign tourists expected to be implemented online by late 2026, and easing capacity constraints.”
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