Macau’s casino concessionaires are expected to report ongoing margin pressure during the first three months of 2026 when earnings season kicks off later this month, although SJM Resorts, S.A. may have enjoyed some margin relief following the closure of its last remaining satellite casinos late last year, according to investment bank Jefferies.
In a note, analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei said that while gross gaming revenues rose by 14% year-on-year during the first quarter based on DICJ data, the VIP sector drove much of the improvement, meaning promotions and competition remain.
“We thus expect adjusted EBITDA margin to remain challenging and similar to 4Q25 … except for SJM, which would benefit from satellite casino closure,” they wrote.
The analysts echo industry sentiment in anticipating slower growth for the remainder of 2026, with a 5% year-on-year improvement between April and December to result in 6.8% growth for FY26 – higher than the street’s 6%.
Gaming stocks continue to stagnate, however, with Jefferies noting that the global geopolitical issue is weighing on sentiment.
For the March quarter, the investment bank sees Sands China and Wynn gaining share, while Galaxy is expected to normalize from its historical high market share in 4Q25. MGM China and SJM are also likely to have lost share, Jefferies said.
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