Macau’s gross gaming revenue should beat consensus in 2026, with stimulus packages in mainland China and ongoing investment by Macau’s concessionaires expected to drive sustained growth throughout this year, according to the latest research report by CBRE Equity Research.
CBRE’s investment research arm also said it was updating its earnings models to reflect slightly higher EBITDA estimates for 1Q26 and FY26 given strong Macau GGR results in the first few months of the year.
Macau stocks remain underwhelming, with US-listed Macau gaming stocks down an average of 14.0% year-to-date and their HK-listed peers down 10.0%. This disconnect, said CBRE’s John DeCree and Max Marsh, is likely due to investors’ lack of conviction in the sustainability of growth and margin concerns due to opex inflation and the elevated competitive environment.
However, the analysts said they still expect Macau GGR to beat consensus of 6% growth this year and find it difficult to envisage a scenario where this does not happen.
“After 1Q26, GGR would need to decelerate to +3.5% for the remainder of the year for FY26 to land at consensus,” they wrote.
“We believe this deceleration is unlikely. China is targeting 4.5% to 5.0% GDP growth and we expect Macau GGR to grow faster than GDP as the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus.
“The ongoing investment in entertainment in Macau should attract additional visitation, particularly from the base mass segment that has yet to fully recover. We are forecasting Macau GGR to grow 8.3% in FY26.”
CBRE also outlined its expectation that both promotional activity and opex would normalize in 2026, having sparked concern after showing significant growth late last year. Marketwide commission dollars increased 21% year-on-year in 4Q25 to comprise 19.2% of GGR – highlighting the growth of the direct VIP segment – while non-tax opex rose 8.6%.
With the elevated promotional activity being driven by a select few operators – Sands China among them after publicly revealing its intention to become more aggressive in the premium mass segment – CBRE said it “expects promotional activity to remain elevated but stabilize in FY26, while opex growth should also normalize as many concession-related opex investments are now baked into the cost structure.”
