The risk of Macau concessionaire SJM Holdings not resuming dividend payments by 2027 has grown given the company’s need to focus its energies on deleveraging, according to investment group CLSA.
In a Tuesday note, CLSA’s Jeffrey Kiang said SJM still had “some way to go” on the road to deleveraging, which should command a higher priority in capital allocation in 2026 and 2027. As such, “the risks of SJM not paying dividends in 2027 has grown” following release last week of the company’s 4Q25 results, which saw Adjusted EBITDA fall 32% year-on-year and below forecasts to HK$671 million.
“We think SJM faces more structural headwinds than other concessionaires amid the more aggressive spending program by Sands China since summer 2025, as we view they have the most overlapping in targeted players,” Kiang wrote.
CLSA noted that decline was attributable to a 3.1 percentage point contraction in revenue market share to 10.5% because of leakage of players from the closure of satellite casinos throughout 2H25.
However, he also highlighted comments from SJM during its 4Q25 earnings call indicating that GGR market share at its Macau peninsula properties in the first two months of this year had grown due to the fast ramp-up of L’Arc. SJM fully acquired the former satellite casino in late December and has transferred some gaming tables and machines from closed satellites to the premises.
