Following a strong finish to February on the back of a post-Chinese New Year tailwind, which helped gross gaming revenues rise 4.5% year-on-year, analysts have outlined expectations of between 10% and 13% growth in March with CNY strength likely to continue early.
In a Monday note, Seaport Research Partners senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said he estimates March GGR to grow by 12.5% year-on-year on a slight 2.7% decrease in average daily revenues compared with January and February combined.
“Chinese New Year was late this year, with the China government official holiday period running 15 to 23 February and we expect some strength in March from high-end play as some high rollers stayed away during CNY,” Umansky said, although he noted that China’s NPC (National People’s Congress) from 5 to 11 March could present a headwind.
“Q1 GGR growth is estimated to be 13.4%, decelerating to mid-single digits in Q2.”
Investment bank JP Morgan is estimating March gaming revenues of more than 10%, assuming daily GGR of MOP$700 million per day and taking total 1Q26 GGR to between 13% and 14% growth.
The bank’s analysts also stated that Macau’s combined January and February performance – when GGR grew by 13.5% – included VIP growth of between 28% and 30% and mass/slot growth of 11% to 12%.
Green shoots in the months ahead include “a favorable mix shift toward mass/slot, stabilizing OPEX momentum (fewer non-gaming events) and seemingly steady promotion/competition,” the analysts said.
