Las Vegas Sands is forecast to exceed US$5 billion in group-wide EBITDA for the first time since 2019 this year, aided by the continued strength of Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands (MBS) and steady improvement at Sands China in Macau.
According to a Thursday note by Seaport Research Partners, both the Singapore and Macau markets remain robust short- and long-term prospects despite recording mixed results in 4Q25, where MBS again exceeded expectations with a record US$806 million in Adjusted Property EBITDA but Macau failed to impress with EBITDA of US$608 million.
Seaport’s Vitaly Umansky pointed out that although Sands China’s EBITDA would have been lower still at US$582 million of adjusted for high VIP hold, it could also have been much higher – between US$640 million and US$650 million – when adjusted for low mass hold and extra costs associated with October’s NBA games at The Venetian Macao.
More importantly, the analyst said the foundations are strong for improved performance throughout 2026 – forecasting Macau property EBITDA of US$631 million in Q1 and FY26 property EBITDA of US$2.55 billion.
“Sands’ competitive advantage in Macau in the long-run is its scale (the largest casino operation, the largest number of hotel rooms, retail and F&B offerings, diversified product inventory) along with a revamped and more premium positioned Londoner product,” Umansky said.
“Management had clearly been facing challenges in light of a very competitive premium mass environment and weak base mass (especially ex-Guangdong overnight base mass customers) in 2024 and much of 2025.
“However, the company has made some Macau management changes in the past few months and continues to optimize its marketing and positioning strategy.”
In Singapore, the forecast is for MBS Adjusted Property EBITDA growth to slow to US$724 million in 1Q26 with FY26 reaching US$2.97 billion and exceeding US$3.1 billion in 2027.
“The property remains the top casino destination in Asia with a strong focus on the luxury and premium customer,” Umansky wrote.
“The Singapore government continues to work on improving visitation into the country, which would continue to support MBS prospects. Any weakening of the USD vs the SGD would have a positive impact on LVS, while a stronger RMB could be positive as well. Liquidity in the market remains the key driver for continued high-end demand at MBS.”
In a separate note, CBRE analyst John DeCree expressed confidence in LVS’s Macau operations moving forward, stating, “We remain optimistic for continued year-on-year EBITDA growth in each quarter of 2026 given the strong topline trends in the market.
“Over time, we suspect margins will recover, especially when the higher-margin base mass business rebounds. LVS management thinks about Macau operations as a low 30% margin business and still expects to eventually hit ~$700mm in quarterly EBITDA, implying that things should get better from here.”
Both companies have maintained a “Buy” rating on LVS and Sands China shares.
