Investment bank JP Morgan is maintaining its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue to grow by between 15% and 20% year-on-year in January after channel checks showed revenues at around MOP$17.8 billion (US$2.22 billion) through the first 25 days of the month.
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian said the month-to-date tally suggested GGR remained steady week-on-week at MOP$693 million (US$86.3 million) per day over the past seven days, despite a lower VIP win rate, GGR for the first 25 days of January combined sits at MOP$712 million (US$88.6 million) based on estimates, considerably higher than December’s MOP$624 million (US$77.7 million) per day.
“We are still comfortable modeling January GGR to grow 15-20% year-on-year, likely towards the high-end of this range, which in turn should allow GGR to grow by around 13% in 2M26 and 1Q26,” the analysts wrote in a note.
They also reiterated their more subdued 4Q25 forecast ahead of earnings season, having recently trimmed its Macau industry EBITDA expectations by 3% on higher OPEX and weaker flow-through.
“Some of the headwinds are seasonal/one-off, but two straight quarters of softer margins may suggest a trend – at least that’s what investors may feel in the near term,” the bank said.
“We thus moved Macau to ‘selective’ (vs ‘outright Bullish’).”
