Macau’s gaming boom is fading, giving way to a “more maturity-driven phase under which revenue growth is slowing but EBITDA growth remaining steady among resilient premium mass demand and increasing visitation, according to S&P Global Ratings.
In a Tuesday note, the ratings agency attributed the slowing of GGR growth to weaker consumption and limited new capacity, while heavy capital spending and shareholder payouts are likely to push aggregate discretionary cash flow into deficit in 2026.
While the assessment has not resulted in any ratings action, S&P added that any return to pre‑pandemic rating levels will hinge on lower leverage and the agency’s confidence in operators’ ability to maintain it.
“Macau’s gaming boom is fading,” S&P wrote. “The sector will be moving from a post-pandemic rebound to a more maturity-driven phase, as capacity limits and potentially softer mass demand temper growth. We think 2026 revenue growth will slow, but steady operations, selective share gains and deleveraging still support modest upside.”
The agency expects GGR to grow by between 3% and 7% in 2026 – slowing from 9.1% last year – with total GGR remaining between 10% and 15% below pre-pandemic levels given the decline of the high-volume, low-margin junkets.
EBITDA is seen rising by roughly 5% for rated issuers, supported by resilient gaming demand, modest wage increases and controlled promotional spending.
According to S&P, Sands China and Melco Resorts stand to gain market share in the mass market segment due to Sands ramping-up of The Londoner Macao and Melco reopening The Countdown Hotel. MGM should be able to retain share while SJM Holdings could lose some share because customer traffic isn’t being redirected effectively to its remaining casinos after satellite casino closures, and because Grand Lisboa Palace is still underperforming.
