Operating leverage across the Macau casino industry would have been much improved in the December 2025 quarter were it not for increased operating costs linked to the NBA China Games, 15th national Games and the closure of satellite casinos, said Citigroup in its latest research note.
With 4Q25 earnings season just around the corner, Citi analysts said it forecasts industry EBITDA for the quarter to have risen by 13% year-on-year to US$2.25 billion based on reported GGR growth of 15%.
However, “we do anticipate incremental opex arisen from the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games plus some costs related to SJM’s satellite casino closure to offset some of the resulting operating leverage,” said analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.
The NBA China Games were hosted by Sands China at The Venetian Arena in October, while a number of operators offered up various venues for the National Games. SJM Resorts, meanwhile, was hardest hit by satellite closures with eight of its nine satellites shutting down in 2H25 alongside its acquisition of the other, L’Arc Macau.
Despite this, Citi said it still expect industry EBITDA margin to rise to 27.5% for the quarter, up from 27.0% a year earlier. It also forecasts Galaxy, MGM China and Sands China to have been market share gainers in Q4.
“We believe Galaxy benefited from the concerts it hosted at Galaxy Macau and some favorable VIP hold rates during the quarter, translating into a 1.0-ppt market share increase (from 20.7% in 3Q25 to 21.7% in 4Q25),” it stated.
“We anticipate MGM China’s market share increasing from 15.5% in 3Q25 to an estimated 16.4% in 4Q25, with some favorable VIP hold at MGM Cotai. We also expect Sands China to have gained market share by 0.5-ppt quarter-on-quarter (from 24.0% in 3Q25 to 24.5% in 4Q25).
“On the other hand, it looks like SJM lost the most market share during the quarter (from 11.8% in 3Q25 to 10.5% in 4Q25), mostly reflecting the closure of the satellite casinos and to a less extent, market share loss at GLP.”
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