Following a surprisingly weak end to 2025 when Macau’s December gaming revenues missed consensus by some margin on low VIP hold, the first month of the new year has started with promise with GGR possibly exceeding MOP$850 million per day during the holiday period.
According to a note from Seaport Research Partners, January has started “quite strong” with the MOP$850 million estimate covering the 1 to 4 January holiday weekend.
December’s tally of MOP$20.89 billion (US$2.61 billion) came at an average of MOP$674 million (US$84 million) per day.
Seaport is forecasting January GGR to grow by 19% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month, aided by an easy comparison on January 2025. That’s despite Chinese New Year running later than last year, from 16 to 22 February 2026.
“We forecast Macau GGR to grow over 14% in 1Q26 and 7% in 2026,” said Seaport’s Senior Analyst, Vitaly Umansky.
“2026 growth is supported by easy comps in H1 and continued eased money flows and visa issuance. Any pick-up on overnight base mass will further increase growth and help share gains from operators with more capacity.”
Umansky added that he expects Macau’s largest operators – Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group – to gain market share in 2026 at the expense of smaller operators.
“Should the overnight base mass improve materially (it is still well below 2019 levels), this could drive growth higher and favor those operators with room capacity.”
