Macau’s gross gaming revenue is forecast to grow by around 6% in 2026, while profit is seen gathering even greater momentum to rise by around 7%, according to industry analysts.
After the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) revealed Thursday that FY25 GGR reached MOP$247.4 billion (US$30.9 billion), Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella outlines his expectation of 5.8% GGR growth to around US$32.8 billion in 2026 followed by another 5.0% growth in 2027 to around US$34.4 billion. This, he said, would include a 10.9% year-on-year rise in GGR to US$2.53 billion in January and a 10.6% increase through the first quarter to US$8.0 billion.
JP Morgan analysts are also forecasting GGR growth of between 5% and 6% this year, adding that that profits should edge past revenue for the first time post-COVID at 6% to 7% growth. This, they said, would “repair” the 2025 flow-through gap when industry EBITDA only rose by 6% despite GGR being up 9%.
“In other words, even with likely moderating GGR, we see profit momentum sustaining, if not accelerating, in 2026,” JP Morgan stated.
The investment bank also reviewed Macau’s 2025 performance, which concluded with a post-COVID record of MOP$66.1 billion (US$8.24 billion) in GGR in the December quarter – up 15% year-on-year and 6$ quarter-on-quarter.
Full‑year GGR, said analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian, nearly doubled their +5% forecast.
“After a soft 1Q, each subsequent quarter beat both expectations and seasonality – delivering sequential acceleration of +1%, +8%, +13% and +15% in [each quarter],” they wrote.
“VIP did the heavy lifting here at +23% growth (vs an initially expected modest decline), while mass/slot still outperformed the forecasts at +7% (vs estimated +5%).
“As such the mix has deteriorated and the profit flow‑through somewhat lagged the top‑line: consensus EBITDA is broadly flattish vs the start of the year, though revised up over 5% from May lows.”
