Financial services firm Macquarie says Wynn Resorts’ recently released financials for its US$5.1 billion Wynn Al Marjan Island development in the UAE could be conservative – suggesting annual gross gaming revenues could reach as high as US$2 billion annually.
The commentary from Macquarie analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir follows last week’s Analyst and Investor UAE Market Tour, alongside which Wynn released an investor presentation containing latest financial projections. This included gross gaming revenue of at least US$1 billion as a low case rising to US$1.33 billion as a base case and US$1.66 billion as a high case.
However, Macquarie said Wynn Al Marjan Island could exceed these forecasts given Wynn’s global track record of outperforming.
“Wynn’s long-term view forecasts US$3 billion to US$5 billion of market GGR,” the analysts wrote. “Wynn expects a 33% market share in the long term (although there is currently no other competition); however, the Wynn premium in Vegas and Macau has shown that it has consistently outpunched its weight in the past.
“Wynn management arrives at the US$3 billion to US$5 billion using several feasibility methods. Wynn expects around 1 million annual customers (domestic and international), visiting 3 times per year and staying for 1.2 days. At US$400 ADT (average daily theoretical), this would equate to US$1.3 billion GGR, but could be between US$1 billion to US$2 billion of GGR given different sensitivities (ADT and trip frequency).”
The analysts also forecast non-gaming revenue to “comfortably” reach between US$200 million to US$400 million annually on significant retail, high ADRs and other non-gaming features.
“Management outlined how it married together a team of current Wynn executives, global luxury executives and local employees to make sure Wynn offers the best non-gaming product for consumers,” they said, adding that MICE alone could account for 15% of property-wide revenue and include frequent luxury Indian weddings, among other events.
EBITDA should be stable in 2029 and beyond, possibly limited by Ras Al Khaimah’s demand outstripping hotel room supply, the analysts observed, but maintain a highly positive view of the development which they believe could add between US$25 and US$50 to the Wynn Resorts share price.
“Following our time with management and digesting the overall UAE market, we remain bullish on Wynn Al Marjan and the company’s ability to exceed financial expectations during the next several years,” they said.
“As Wynn shares now trade at [an estimated] 9.8x EV/EBITDA [in 2026] and 21.8x [price to earnings ratio], we believe the stock does not include much Al Marjan value, nor any future knock-on effect for Wynn in the future.”
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