Macau’s casino operators are tipped to average daily gaming revenues of MOP$1.05 billion (US$131 million) during the upcoming eight-day October Golden Week holiday, but strength could also be maintained well beyond Golden Week thanks to the city’s impressive events calendar, according to investment bank Citigroup.
In a note, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said a run-rate of MOP$1.05 billion would be largely in-line with the run-rate achieved during the Labor Day holidays in May, however whether October beats consensus will rely more on what happens afterwards.
“We believe this is why casino operators are strategically organizing some heavyweight events after the Golden Week [such as] the NBA China games between Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets at Venetian Arena and Jackson Wang concert at Galaxy Arena,” they wrote.
“If these events are successful in boosting gaming volumes post Golden Week, our October GGR forecast of MOP$23 billion (US$2.86 billion) could prove conservative.”
Citi said it remains bullish on Macau’s future growth, driven in part by its concert and events model but also enhanced casino hold rates enabled by greater access to side bets (via smart tables).
As such, the investment bank has further raised its FY25 GGR growth forecast from 7% to 10% year-on-year, representing 14% growth from now until the end of the year and a GGR target of MOP$248.6 billion (US$31.1 billion). Its FY26 growth forecast has also been increased from 5% to 7%, or MOP265.5 billion (US$33.3 billion).
“Our proprietary table survey has been telling us since April 25 that gaming demand (especially Premium Mass) remains robust,” the analysts said.
“The rich concert/event calendar that the casino operators are putting together over the next several months will continue to appeal to premium players. Also, the six casino operators have been introducing some new side bets to their baccarat games. These side bets are significantly enhancing house advantages. We are seeing signs that these side bets are pushing up casino hold rates, and this makes us more comfortable with our current GGR forecasts.”
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