The number of Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand continues to fall, with airlines increasingly slashing flights and visitation through August falling below already subdued forecasts, according to research from Maybank Securities.
Just days after Thailand’s Constitutional Court ousted Prime Minister Paetongtaern Shinawatra in a move seen as dealing a fatal blow to the Entertainment Complex Bill that had sought to legalize casino gaming, Maybank noted that airlines have continued to reduce capacity on China-Thailand routes in 3Q25 with the rate of reduction even intensifying compared with recent months.
It cited information from air travel data provider ForwardKeys which projects seat capacity to drop 25% year-on-year in 3Q25, worse than previously forecast at 13% down year-on-year and 18% YoY in Q2.
Meanwhile, “July-August 2025 tourist arrivals from China were below our expectation at 43% compared with the same period in pre-Covid 2019,” said Maybank analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank in a note.
The decline in Chinese visitation to Thailand has been attributed to safety concerns following negative publicity around scam centers on the Thai border and the high-profile kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing in January. Wang was later located in Myanmar where he had been forced to work in one of those scam centers.
Kevin Clayton, Galaxy Entertainment Group’s Chief Brand Officer, Thailand, noted during IAG’s Thailand Entertainment Complex Roundtable in June that such instances had resulted in a “reassessment of Thailand as a destination” among Chinese tourists.
“Affordability and accessibility will always be key considerations for many travelers before making a decision on a vacation, but safety will always rank above all else,” Clayton explained at the time.
“It’s therefore much easier to understand why Chinese are deciding against Thailand and preferring other more favorable destinations like Japan, South Korea and Singapore.”
Clayton had pointed to entertainment complexes as providing one important strategy to fuel incremental growth in the form of “billions of [US] dollars of international investment in luxury entertainment attractions that will headline live performances, the very best international dining, the finest hospitality, unique retail concepts and plenty of fun – all presented with Thailand’s warm, welcoming culture.”
Maybank Securities said Monday that its channel checks showed a 67% blended occupancy rate for seven listed hotel operators in 3Q25 vs 70% in 3Q24 and 64% in 2Q25.
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