Investment research firm Seaport Research Partners has upped its 2025 Macau GGR forecast and increased its price targets for almost all stocks on improved sentiment following a recent surge in gaming revenues in the world’s largest casino hub.
In a Tuesday note, Seaport’s senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said that although concerns about China’s macroeconomic environment remain a headwind, such concerns are now likely outweighed by improving sentiment and stimulus with many of the gaming stocks under the firm’s coverage looking largely undervalued.
Noting that growth had re-accelerated in Macau over the past few months, Seaport is now forecasting 9% year-on-year GGR growth in the second half of 2025 – translating to 7% growth for the year as a whole. Macau GGR grew by 4.4% year-on-year to MOP$118.8 billion (US$14.7 billion) in 1H25.
Seaport has also increased its price targets for all stocks except for MGM Resorts and MGM China – the former due to the slowdown in Las Vegas and rising capex in New York and Japan, the latter because its Macau share price has been strong recently and now looks to be fair value.
Las Vegas Sands with a target price of US$58, Melco Resorts at US$11, Wynn Resorts at US$125, Galaxy at HK$45, Sands China at HK$23 and Wynn Macau at HK$8 are all rated as “Buy”.
“Our gaming thesis is largely driven by long-term secular growth in the Macau and Singapore markets, and for Wynn the opportunity in UAE,” Umansky wrote.
“While 2025 had started softly in Macau, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in 2H is bearing fruit, and we continue to see Macau as a secular long-term growth market.
“In Macau, we forecast GGR growth of 7% in 2025 and 7% growth the next several years, which should lead to EBITDA CAGR of 9%. Longer term, market share shifts would benefit Sands and Galaxy, while smaller operators should see share loss – this could be more impacted if base mass recovery is stronger than we currently forecast.”
With Macau’s 2Q25 results season kicking off with Las Vegas Sands this Thursday morning Asia time, Umansky said he anticipates overall market figures to be largely in line with expectations “with Melco likely having the best quarter of the group in Macau with its highest Macau EBITDA since 2019.”
