Investment bank Jefferies has upgraded its Macau GGR forecast for 2025, explaining in a note that it now expects gaming revenues to reach MOP$237 billion (US$29.3 billion) – in line with market estimates but higher than the Macau government’s recently revised estimates.
The new forecast is based on Macau’s 1H25 GGR trend, which booked a 4.4% year-on-year increase to MOP$118.8 billion (US$14.7 billion) thanks to a surge in revenues in May and June. Jefferies has also upgraded its forecast for the next two years, expecting GGR to grow 3.5% to MOP$245 billion (US$30.3 billion) in 2026 and 3.4% to MOP$254 billion (US$31.4 billion) in 2027.
The bank said it expects Galaxy Entertainment Group and MGM China to continue increasing market share in 2025 and 2026, with Sands China to catch up following the completion of The Londoner Macao renovations.
Ahead of 2Q25 earnings season, Jefferies anticipates Galaxy, MGM and Sands to enjoy market share gains at the expense of SJM and Wynn in the quarter.
“We expect Galaxy to experience margin expansion in 2Q25, with the scale at its Galaxy property reaching an inflection point,” said analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei.
“On the other hand, Sands China is likely to focus on driving absolute Adjusted EBITDA. Among the niche operators, MGM continues to outperform, in our view.”
Jefferies also outlined its Macau GGR estimates for the first two weeks of July, which it said is believed to have risen by around 9% year-on-year – driven by the recent Jacky Cheung concerts at Galaxy Arena and a high VIP win rate.
Although the early July numbers are 10% lower than the last two weeks of June, the analysts said this was still “a good start to 2H given that the third quarter is normally a low season. We believe the market view is currently mixed, wondering if the strong performance in May and June will continue in 2H25 or whether VIP players just visited Macau earlier this year for the new properties.
“After the success of Jacky Cheung concerts in the second half of June to the first week of July, Galaxy is hosting Eason Chan concerts in August. The popular [House of Dancing Water] show, which resumed [at City of Dreams] in May, will also help attract traffic during the summer period. Summer time, which mainly attracts tourists, tends to benefit big property operators based on seasonal trends.”
