An analysis of the 2025 EBITDA forecasts of Macau’s six concessionaires, compared with the realistic growth drivers that can get them there, has found that Melco Resorts & Entertainment and MGM China are the most likely to outperform expectations.
The study by investment bank Morgan Stanley was conducted on the basis of comparing those with the lowest growth expectation against ones with higher growth expectations. Analyst Praveen Choudhary started by taking Q1 reported EBITDA and adding three times hold-adjusted EBITDA to get what’s possible to achieve in 2025, then compared each with 2025 consensus.
“We find that Sands China (+15%), SJM (+10%) and Galaxy (+7%) are pricing market share gains, while MGM (-10%) is expected to lose share,” Choudhary said in a note.
“[However], we believe MGM is able to maintain its EBITDA share and thus could see upside to its 2025 EBITDA estimates. Melco, with the help of [recently reopened residency show] House of Dancing Water could also see some growth in the remainder of 2025.
“The higher growth expectation for Sands and Galaxy mainly reflects the newly added capacity – completion of Londoner Grand and opening of Capella – but in the absence of additional table/slot capacity, it may be difficult to gain share.”
Morgan Stanley said it therefore prefers Melco and MGM stocks in the short-term.
