With Macau’s gross gaming revenues having shown clear signs of post-COVID normalization through the first three months of 2025, industry analysts are again expecting GGR to stay flat in April – although there is concern that a recent crackdown on illegal money changers could have some short-term negative impact.
In a note following release of Macau’s March GGR numbers on Tuesday, Seaport Research Partners analyst Vitaly Umansky said recent action against two money exchange groups could lead to some short-term demand softness as customers may stay away from pawnshops and others may forego a near term trip to Macau.
The action, reported by Inside Asian Gaming, saw more than 40 individuals from Macau and mainland China arrested after handling transactions of nearly HK$800 million (US$100 million) over a five-month period through local pawn shops.
Nevertheless, Seaport said it doesn’t expect the crackdown to materially impact Macau demand in the long-term.
“We do not see this as a new crackdown on more mainstream money movement,” the research house wrote. “The latest law enforcement actions were directed at what can be classified as an egregious money movement operation well beyond what is normally allowed at pawnshops, for example.”
Nevertheless, the crackdown stands as a potential headwind in April, with Seaport forecasting a 0.1% year-on-year and 5.8% month-on-month decline in gaming revenues The 2025 GGR forecast remains unchanged at 6.5% growth, accelerating during the second half of the year.
“Growth should be driven by increase in marketing efforts by operators and consumer trends in China. China stimulus and policy measures are likely to help China’s economy and improve consumer confidence later this year,” Umansky said.
In a separate note, JP Morgan analysts observed that although headline GGR for the first three months of 2025 combined was flat at MOP$57.7 billion, on a daily run-rate basis it implies modest growth of 2% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month and was the highest run-rate in over 20 quarters at MOP$641 million per day.
“This bodes well for growth to improve into 2H25, given easier comps from June onwards,” the investment bank stated.
