Macau’s visitor numbers have been rapidly racing back to pre-pandemic levels in the two years since borders reopened, but according to financial research group CreditSights it will likely prove difficult for average GGR per visitor to do the same.
In a note preceding this weekend’s release of Macau gaming revenue results for the month of February, analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey pointed out that GGR per visitor is constrained by the minimal presence of junket-sourced VIPs in the market following the collapse of the junket industry in late 2022.
More importantly, they observe that visitation from China’s more affluent provinces and municipalities – the likes of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin – has already recovered to pre-COVID levels in 2024 and early 2025.
As such, “any further visitation upside from mainland China would likely largely come from the other provinces with lower GDP per capita,” the analysts wrote.
Average GGR per visitor in January was a substantial 26% lower than the same month in 2024 at MOP$5,006, although this particular example may have been artificially skewed, they noted, by a greater proportion of non-gaming visitors due to Chinese New Year.
Nevertheless, CreditSights sees Macau’s DICJ reporting sequential improvement in February GGR, with a number of concessionaires having recently reported healthy footfall and gaming volumes during the second week of Chinese New Year and beyond.
“A year-on-year improvement is also not entirely off the table,” Chen and Bussey said.
The DICJ previously reported GGR of MOP$18.3 billion in January, down 6% year-on-year.
