Macau’s gross gaming revenues fell by an estimated 39% to around MOP$514 million (US$64.1 million) per day in the week to 20 October, down from MOP$846 million (US$106 million) per day during the first two weeks of the month according to channel checks by JP Morgan analysts.
The decline was not unexpected however, coming off a high base due to the impact of the National Day Golden Week holiday from 1 to 7 October.
Total GGR for the first 20 days of October combined now sits at MOP$14.6 billion (US$1.82 billion) or MOP$730 million (US$91.1 million) per day – suggesting final October GGR should come in at around MOP$21 billion (US$ 2.62 billion) or MOP$670 million (US$83.6 million) per day to comfortably beat consensus (MOP$20 billion).
In a Monday note, JP Morgan analysts said mass GGR for the month has recovered to between 110% and 115% of the pre-COVID level with VIP at ~25% recovery, tracking ahead of the prior quarter’s recovery rates of 105% to 110% for mass and 23% to 25% for VIP.
“We may not extrapolate this for a full quarter as the figure was boosted by a very strong Golden Week, but it is encouraging to see that the recovery rate is rebounding so far after two quarters of sequential pull-back,” they wrote.
With Las Vegas Sands set to kick off 3Q24 earnings season this Thursday morning local time, JP Morgan said investors will scrutinize the sustainability of the above-seasonal momentum for the rest of the quarter to get a true sense of “demand inflection” for Macau’s gaming operators, particularly in the wake of recent stimulus measures announced by Beijing.
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