Macau’s headline gross gaming revenue fell by 1% quarter-on-quarter to MOP$55.6 billion (US$6.94 billion) in the three months to 20 September 2024, lagging the historical trend of a 2% to 3% sequential increase.
But the decline was largely seen as expected, according to investment bank JP Morgan, hindered by a weak start to the quarter in July – which missed consensus – and a series of headwinds in early September.
In a note following publication by the DICJ of Macau’s September GGR on Tuesday, which fell almost 13% month-on-month to MOP$17.3 billion (US$2.16 billion), JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said the result was not as bad as expected, especially given a “slew of poor data points in the China consumer/luxury/leisure spaces in recent months.”
They also expect 3Q24 results season to offer few surprises – although the wait is on to see how operators fare during the current Golden Week holiday period.
“We expect this Golden Week’s GGR to fall in between the last year’s at MOP$830 million (US$103.6 million) per day and 2024 May Day’s MOP$910 million (US$113.6 million) per day prints, generating around MOP$850 million (US$106.1 million) daily run-rate,” the analysts wrote.
“We’ll get our first check next Monday (October 7) for the first six days of Golden Week, and any print of over MOP$900 million (US$112.4 million) per day (implying a double-digit year-on-year growth despite reasonably tough comps) could add momentum to the current rally, in our view.”
