The occupancy and Average Daily Rate (ADR) of Macau’s hotels are expected to be weaker throughout the upcoming May Golden Week than during the most recent Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday period according to a survey of 28 hotels conducted by Morgan Stanley analysts.
The survey covers a seven-day period from 30 April to 6 May and incorporates the five official days of holiday from 1 to 5 May 2024.
In a note, analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung said bookings for the May Golden Week look weaker compared with CNY for 60% of hotels surveyed, and for 40% of hotels when compared with May Golden Week in 2019.
Likewise, ADR is tracking 20% weaker for most hotels versus both CNY and the 2019 May Golden Week.
This, the investment bank says, is particularly evident in Sands China-operated hotels such as Venetian, Four Seasons and Parisian which “seem to be experiencing a bigger decline in ADR and occupancy than peers,” although this could be partly due to renovations, the analysts observe.
Peninsula hotels Mandarin Oriental, Wynn Macau and Sands Macao are also showing declines, however MGM China is showing comparative strength in occupancy and ADR.
Hotels at Galaxy Entertainment Group’s Galaxy Macau and StarWorld dominate the list of those already fully booked across all seven days surveyed, while Londoner Hotel is one of the very few hotels charging a higher rate than during CNY in February.
According to Morgan Stanley estimates, daily GGR during May Golden Week should rise to between MOP$800 million and MOP$850 million (US$99 million and US$105 million), equivalent to between 73% and 77% of 2019 levels and less than 10% below 2024 CNY.
