Citi analysts have raised their growth forecast for FY24, with gross gaming revenues now tipped to reach MOP$231.3 billion or US$29 billion, equivalent to 79% of 2019 levels.
The revised forecast, which reflects 26% annual growth versus the bank’s previous estimate of 18%, comes after Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau announced on Thursday GGR of MOP$19.33 billion (US$2.40 billion) in January – well above street estimates.
A daily run-rate of MOP$624 million (US$77.5 million) per day also placed in behind only the MOP$629 million (US$78.1 million) per day seen in October as the highest run-rate since reo-opening last January.
In a note, Citi analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung observed that the expected pre-Chinese New Year slowdown in Macau had yet to take place. This they supposed, was in part due to recent high-profile k-pop concerts held in Macau but also highlighted the fact that “mainland Chinese visitors are still able and willing to spend in Macau.”
Citi has also revised upwards its February GGR forecast from MOP$18.5 billion to MOP$19.5 billion (US$2.30 billion to US$2.42 billion), with the average daily run-rate tipped to climb by 5% month-on-month to MOP$655 million (US$81.3 million) but peaking at MOP$900 (US$111.7 million) million towards the end of CNY.
In a separate note, JP Morgan said January’s GGR result was the “best-ever January in the history of Macau when it comes to mass demand, which is impressive, especially considering current macro/consumption environments.”
Analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li also echoed Citi’s CNY forecast, writing, “Our checks indicate a very healthy level (essentially a record-high quality) of gaming patrons pre-booked for comped rooms. We expect over MOP$650 million (US$80.7 million) per day print over the 8-day holiday, including a lull period.”
