Anticipated recovery of the Philippines’ tourism sector this year is seen as a potential windfall for Philippines casino and integrated resort operator Bloomberry Resorts Corp by aiding an increase in demand within its VIP gaming segment.
In a Wednesday note ahead of Bloomberry’s 4Q23 and FY23 results announcement, Maybank Securities analyst Alexa Mae Carvajal downgraded her earnings forecast for the Solaire Resort operator by 13% to Php10.8 billion (US$193 million) in FY23 and by 23% to Php13.2 billion (US$236 million) in FY24 due to slower-than-expected revenue generation during the September 2023 quarter from both the VIP and slots segments.
However, Carvajal noted that VIP could enjoy a strong recovery in 2024 as international tourist numbers rise, particularly those from China. In particular she pointed to the fact that last year’s 5.5 million arrivals were still only 66% of pre-pandemic levels, with the Department of Tourism having recently set a 2024 target of 7.7 million arrivals.
“The further recovery in the tourism sector could potentially drive the increase in demand for the VIP segment,” the analyst said.
“Currently, foreign players are mainly from South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia, and any uptick from Chinese tourist arrivals would be a potential windfall for Bloom.”
Despite this, Carvajal said she expects most of the company’s growth in the short-term to come from the higher-margin mass and slots segments – particularly with the impending launch of Solaire Resort North, which will add around 150 gaming tables and 2,500 slots to the company’s inventory.
She also noted that her lowered earnings forecast still represents year-on-year growth of 109% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, “Reinforcing our ‘BUY’ recommendation on Bloomberry [stocks].”
“Despite concern about a potential inflation uptick from El Nino, Bloomberry’s discretionary consumption-driven story should hold in FY24 as foot traffic and tourism continue to recover,” Carvajal wrote.
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