Macau’s gaming operators have maintained strong momentum through the first two weeks of January, with gross gaming revenues for the first 14 days of the month estimated at MOP$8.6 billion (US$1.07 billion) or MOP$614 million (US$76.2 million) per day.
According to a note from investment bank JP Morgan in the wake of its weekly channel checks, the last seven days saw a run rate of around MOP$600 million (US$74.5 million) per day, down from MOP$630 million (US$78.2 million) over the New Year holiday “but still pretty solid and respectable against seasonality.”
Mass GGR continues to perform strongly at between 105% and 110% of pre-pandemic levels, while VIP is flat at 20%.
Analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said they expect GGR to slow down during the coming weeks in the lead-up to Chinese New Year, but still expect January to print GGR of between MOP$17.5 billion and MOP$18 billion (US$2.17 billion and US$2.23 billion).
Meanwhile, with 4Q23 earnings season just around the corner, the analysts industry-wide EBITDA to grow by 8% to 9% quarter-on-quarter to hit 85% of pre-COVID levels on a luck-adjusted basis.
“Investors will likely scrutinize OPEX and promotions/reinvestments given (modest) margin disappointments from 3Q, and we believe most operators will be OK here,” they wrote.
