Macau’s mass gaming revenues have now reached “93% to 94% of pre-COVID levels according to investment bank JP Morgan, led by the premium mass segment which has comfortably surpassed 2019.
Analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li issued a note late Friday after figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination showed August to be the city’s best month since the reopening of borders in January, with GGR reaching MOP$17.2 billion. This, the analysts explained, implied a daily run-rate of MOP$555 million per day to recover to 71% of 2019 levels, however it is premium mass doing the heavy lifting.
The premium mass segment, they said, had likely reached 110% of pre-COVID levels in August with base mass still hovering between 75% and 80% and VIP – mostly through premium direct – at 28% to 29%.
All eyes will now turn to the October Golden Week although JP Morgan warns that September revenues could be subdued on both seasonality and the impact of Typhoon Saola, which saw Macau’s casinos and transport corridors temporarily closed over the weekend.
“September GGR isn’t going to wow anyone, not only due to seasonality (a shoulder season between summer holiday and October Golden Week), but also due to super Typhoon Saola,” the analysts wrote.
“But this is already well-flagged, and the market is likely to focus on the upcoming Golden Week.
“Many investors ask, ‘Is there a way to gauge how good (or bad) the Golden Week will be?’ ̇Not really, because of a very short booking window of Chinese travellers (only several days) and an even shorter window for Chinese gamblers.
“We know that all the rooms at Macau casinos will be sold out, as has been the case historically, but the question always is, “Who will be staying there and how much will they play (and lose)?’. We thus can only have some reliable colour during the week, not before.”
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