Galaxy Entertainment Group has informed analysts that its mass market table drop and win have bounced back to 120% of 2019 levels so far in Q3, reflecting a similar surge reported by other Macau operators during recent earnings calls.
While the company’s 2Q23 results, released last Thursday, were slightly below estimates due to low margin at the company’s flagship property Galaxy Macau, GEG said it has seen strong recovery in July and August with pace through the quarter accelerating.
“Looking forward into 3Q23, management reported a number of key metrics that give plenty of reason for optimism,” said CBRE Equity Research senior analyst John DeCree.
“Most notably, quarter-to-date mass drop and win are already at 120% of 2019 levels company-wide, though we suspect the quantum of contribution is weighted to Galaxy Macau given its recently completed capital projects and upcoming event schedule.
“While 2Q23 operated near full occupancy, this trend is persisting into 3Q23 even with the additional room supply.”
Jefferies analyst Andrew Lee added that premium mass was recovering ahead of base mass, according to management, with base mass currently in-line with visitation.
GEG has, he added, gained market share in August on positive impact from the opening of Raffles hotel and its new Horizon Premium Club. It had also seen minimal negative impact from mainland China’s recent reinstatement of group tours to Japan and South Korea.
Jefferies has, following the update, revised upwards its gross gaming revenue estimates for GEG, with 2023 revenues now tipped to reach 63% of pre-COVID levels in 2023 (previously 45%) and 74% in 2024. Mass revenues have been revised to 86% in 2023 and 100% in 2024.
“Galaxy remains top pick in the sector due to attractive product, especially with potentially continued stronger foot traffic from Phase 3 opening impact, and net cash,” Lee wrote in a Friday note.
DeCree, meanwhile, revealed that the topping off of four towers comprising Galaxy Macau’s Phase 4 expansion are expected to be topped off by the end of this year.
“As the broader Macau recovery continues and various high-value capital improvements come online, we see plenty of earnings growth ahead for Galaxy,” he said.
Phase 4 will include six high-end hotels, a 4,000-seat theater, extensive food and beverage outlets, retail, a water resort deck and some gaming facilities. It will, when complete, take Galaxy’s Macau hotel capacity to around 7,500 rooms.
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