Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is tipped to fall by a further 13% month-on-month in April as growing COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of mainland China continue to test the nation’s strict zero-COVID stance, according to a weekly note by brokerage Bernstein.
In a Monday note, Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky warned that April GGR will continue to be weak, continuing a trend seen in March when monthly GGR fell to its lowest level in 18 months.
The decline reflects falling visitation due restrictive travel and border control across China, which has seen Macau authorities reduce the validity period of negative COVID-19 tests for those entering from Zhuhai from 48 hours to 24 hours. Authorities said Sunday that this shortened validity period would remain in place for the foreseeable future.
While Macau GGR from 1 to 10 April, estimated to be MOP100 million (US$12 million) per day, was up 3% versus late March, Bernstein forecasts a 13% decline in average daily revenue in April compared with March ADR, a figure that could drop further if travel tightening occurs.
“May [will] most likely be negatively impacted as well,” Umansky wrote.
However, he noted that, “The economic pressure has been increasing and the experience battling against new round of outbreaks in Hong Kong and Shanghai has been painful. We believe that these may (eventually) lead to the Chinese government re-evaluating [or] modifying its Zero-COVID strategy.”
