Macau’s gross gaming revenue increased by 25% week-on-week in the seven days from 11 to 17 November but would have been higher if not impacted by particularly low VIP hold, according to a weekly report by brokerage Bernstein.
It is the second week in a row that low hold in the VIP sector has effected gaming revenues.
Nevertheless, analysts Vitaly Umansky, Louis Li and Kelsey Zhu noted that Macau was currently gaining positive momentum, aided by key events such as the Macau Grand Prix and Food Festival as well as dwindling COVID-19 cases in mainland China which has boosted travel confidence.
Through the first 21 days of November, Macau’s GGR is estimated at MOP$4.7 billion (US$585 million) with an average daily rate of MOP$224 million (US$28 million) – down 71% compared with November 2019 but 59% higher than October. October’s GGR figure was the lowest in 13 months at just MOP$4.37 billion (US$544 million).
Pointing to the impact of low hold, Bernstein said, “Last week, VIP hold in Macau is likely to have been below 0.5% (or even negative) and is trending around 1.7% to 1.9% for the month, well below normal level of 3%, which has impacted negatively the average daily GGR figure.
“If hold were normal, last week’s average daily rate could likely have been ~35% higher and month-to-date average daily rate could likely be in the MOP$260 million to MOP$270 million range (vs MOP$224 million) if hold were normal during the entire month.
“VIP average daily rolling volume up~80% month-on-month while daily mass GGR was up ~55% from September.”
The analysts are predicting November GGR to be between 68% and 70% lower than November 2019 as a result of low hold.
