Gaming analysts said on Monday that Macau’s gross gaming revenue through the first 15 days of December is estimated at MOP$10.8 billion, or MOP$720 million per day, putting it on track to be the weakest month of 2019.
The figures represent a 16% decline over December 2018 and are well down on Bloomberg estimates of -10% for the month, with both VIP and mass feeling the impact of tightened visa controls and heightened security measures ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit for the Macau SAR’s 20th anniversary celebrations.
“December is set to be the weakest month of the year,” said JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Derek Choi and Jeremy An in a note.
“By segment, we estimate VIP volumes dropped sharply by low-to-mid 30%, and mass GGR fell low-to-mid-single digits year-on-year. The high-end segments (including premium mass) saw a greater deterioration amid the stepped up security measures and visa controls across almost all major properties.
“We now expect December GGR to drop 14% to 16% year-on-year to about MOP$22.3 billion to MOP$22.8 billion, which would be the weakest print of 2019 on both growth and absolute terms.”
According to Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu, weakness may carry over into early January as high-end players delay travel plans until Chinese New Year.
“The month (December) may turn out to be weaker than currently estimated if weakness permeates post Xi’s visit as customers hold off visiting Macau until the new year,” they wrote. “Chinese New Year begins earlier in 2020 than last year – in late January, which may further shift demand out of December and early January.”
However, JP Morgan also described the December slowdown as “likely just a short-term blip,” suggesting a high chance of lost demand being recouped come late January and into February.
