Japan’s lawmakers could still have time to resume debate on potential IR legislation and even pass the vital Responsible Gaming Bill before the end of the year following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s landslide election win.
So says a new research update released by consultancy firm Global Market Advisors on Tuesday, which points to the upcoming extraordinary Diet session beginning 1 November as an earlier than expected opportunity for IR discussions to progress.
The update, from the same group that first proposed the “Osaka Strip” in a White Paper in May, expects the session to confirm Abe as Prime Minister and allow him to trigger a new cabinet.
“While the specific time length of the session has not been determined at the time of this publication, if it is extended through December as has been discussed by some experts, it may allow for debate to begin on some of the key aforementioned issues, including integrated resorts,” it says.
“For most stakeholders following integrated resort development in Japan, there are two key pieces of legislation that are expected to occur before an RFP process is started. The first piece of legislation expected is the Responsible Gaming Bill. While there may be several current drafts of this bill, this is by far the most important bill to pass as it leads to the IR Implementation Bill.
“Some experts believe that there may be time this fall in an extended extra ordinary session to debate the Responsible Gaming Bill and pass it this year.”
Whether lawmakers do indeed find time to resume IR discussions will depend not only on how long the Diet session runs but also where it falls on the priority list given other major issues such as tensions with North Korea. US President Donald Trump is also scheduled to visit Japan on 5 November.
However, it would be far from unprecedented for Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party to push legislation through before the end of the year and in fact this was their method only 12 months ago, with GMA noting that, “If the bill were to pass this year, it would be in a similar fashion to the initial IR Bill that was passed last December. If they do not have a long enough session to address this legislation, it is thought that the bill will pass in spring 2018 in the regular ordinary session.”
Either way, “once the RG Bill is passed, the debate on the IR Implementation Bill will commence in late spring and into summer.”
GMA’s research update also states the importance of the government working with potential operators in setting the framework for Japanese integrated resorts amid suggestions that over-regulation could kill off foreign interest and render the establishment of IRs pointless.
Among the major concerns are talk of limitations on the total floor space allowed for gaming to as little as 15,000 square meters and an entry levy for locals.
“Instead, Japan should allow the operator to work in partnership with the regulatory board to allow for a gaming floor that meets demand, thereby allowing enough profit to warrant the large levels of investment necessary to appropriately construct the other non-gaming amenities that will help spur incremental tourism and economic benefits,” GMA says.
“If an entry levy is charged to locals, it should be an amount that is equivalent to the cost of entertainment. Studies have shown that entry levies are not effective in preventing problem gaming. As such, an entry levy should be viewed as a tax by the government, rather than a deterrent to problem gamblers.
“Any decision on entry levies should be made by the appointed regulatory authority and based on best practices from evidence-based research. These same best practices should apply to visitation restrictions that limit the number of visits a patron may make within a given period of time.
“GMA continues to believe that there is significant opportunity for integrated resorts within major cities, as well as various regions/prefectures throughout the country. The opportunity for Japan to set the standard for the next iteration of integrated resort development is now. The market needs to be framed appropriately to create a partnership between operators and the Japanese Government. The industry still needs to educate Japanese stakeholders and the general population on all aspects of an integrated resort.
“GMA encourages the Diet to leave the specifics of many of the aforementioned items to the regulatory authority. Many of these decisions should not be set strictly in law in the IR Implementation Bill. The law should offer the guiding principles and framework from which the regulatory board can implement and oversee the integrated resorts. This will allow for evidence- based research to serve as a guiding principle and allow for the regulatory authority to evolve.”
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