Investment bank Morgan Stanley has again raised its Macau-wide GGR estimates for 2023, with gaming revenues now tipped to reach almost US$20 billion, rising to more than US$25 billion next year.
In a new research note following publication last week of Macau’s April GGR figures – which beat consensus at MOP$14.72 (US$1.82 billion) – Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung and Stephen Grambling said they now expect mass gaming revenues to reach 90% of 2019 levels this year and 115% in 2024. GGR is tipped to reach US$19.9 billion or 88% of pre-COVID mass levels this year, increasing to US$25.7 billion or 114% next year.
“We remain confident on Macau’s recovery,” the analysts said. “Macau monthly GGR has come stronger than consensus expectations for two consecutive months. We believe visitation recovery (April was 64% of the pre-Covid level) will continue to drive revenue recovery (April Mass revenue was ~100% of the pre-Covid level, we estimate).”
Morgan Stanley has also increased its estimates for both Sands China and MGM China – the two concessionaires to have published their 1Q23 financial results to date. Both reported a strong recovery trajectory with Sands China’s revenues more than doubling year-on-year to US$1.27 billion and MGM China’s revenues up 130% to US$618 million.
The analysts have raised their 2023 EBITDA estimates for Sands by 23% to 75% of 2019 levels in 2023, rising to 112% of 2019 levels next year, while MGM China’s EBITDA estimates have also been increased by 23% to 105% of 2019 levels this year.
