The June 2023 quarter is off to a “decent start” according to investment bank JP Morgan, with Macau’s gross gaming revenues reaching MOP$4 billion (US$495 million) over the first 10 days of April at an average of MOP$400 million (US$49.5 million) per day.
In a Tuesday note, analysts DS Kim and Mufan Shi observed that this run rate is line with March, which averaged MOP$411 million (US$51 million) per day – although April could be higher still.
“We … flag the potential margin of error in these weekly checks (we’d say around 5-10% deviation is possible for any given week), and we feel the actual GGR could be a tad stronger than MOP$400 million per day,” they wrote.
The analysts also note that the current run rate suggests mass GGR has moved above 70% of pre-COVID levels.
With the Macau recovery story now well and truly underway, the next move to watch for is in the stock market which JP Morgan suggests has yet to fully respond to rising revenues.
“We (still) remain confident of sizable absolute and relative upside in Macau stocks,” they said. “Our bull thesis may not be very novel, but can still be powerful: the pace of demand recovery continues to ramp (as proven in March GGR), street estimates move higher (probably more pronounced into 1Q23 earnings), sceptical investor sentiment gradually improves (hopefully soon), and valuation finally mean-reverts to mid-cycle levels if not re-rates to up-cycles, which in turn produces potential upside of around 40% to our OW ratings on average.
“Put another way, we envision a ‘goldilocks’ rally where the stocks can grind higher quarter after quarter against the wall of worries, as more investors (particularly long-onlys) return to invest in this space, following four to five years of lull amidst concerns on licence risk, VIP clamp-down, Hong Kong SAR unrest, and COVID-19, among others.”
