Macau’s gaming industry is poised to take its first steps towards normality on Thursday when the government’s mandated 15-day closure of casinos comes to an end, but don’t expect customers to return anytime soon.
While concerns over a possible extension to the closure order were allayed on Monday with the news that casinos would be allowed to re-open from midnight on 20 February, there has been no such lifting of the entry restrictions that have seen Macau’s visitor numbers plummet to record lows, with Bernstein analysts still estimating a year-on-year decline in Q1 GGR of between 50% and 60%.
“Even with the casinos reopening, there will still be a dearth of customers,” the brokerage warned in a note published shortly after the government’s announcement.
“The suspension of group travel and IVS visa issuance eliminates the largest source of customers. Until the suspensions are lifted, most mainland Chinese customers will not be able to enter Macau.
“There is no clarity at this time from China [as to] when such travel may begin to be permitted. Visitation is only a mere trickle out of mainland China.”
It seems unlikely that all 39 operational Macau casinos will open their doors this week, with the government offering operators the option to apply for a single 30-day extension should they require more time to prepare. According to Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu, the measure is understood to be a compromise given that some operators were pushing to re-open while others preferred to stay closed given modest business expectations.
Either way, the analysts reiterated their view that “Q1 is obviously going to show awful results.
“Assuming a 2-week shutdown followed by some soft business resuming in late February and March, Q1 could show a GGR year-on-year decline of ~50%,” they said. “Continued softness through the rest of Q1 (if visa issuance is not resumed) could lead to GGR decline of 60%+. The result will largely be dependent on resumption of the issuance of visas and transport connectivity.”
