Financial research firm CreditSights says it is not yet ready to declare Macau’s softer gaming environment as structural rather than cyclical, with the soon-to-be-released October GGR figure to provide greater clarity given the headwinds of recent months.
In its latest Macau Gaming Monitor, CreditSights noted that the year-on-year declines in June and July – when GGR fell by 12.1% and 8.4% respectively – should be excluded because they were largely impacted by the football World Cup.
It also cites robust Golden Week tourist volume which could support a better GGR performance in October; while Sands China parent Las Vegas Sands last week exuded optimism of a seasonally stronger fourth quarter thanks to Golden Week and the recently concluded NBA China Games 2026 at The Venetian Macao.
“For now, we still see room for Macau to reach its 2026 GGR target, with the fourth quarter requiring an average monthly GGR of just MOP$16.3 billion (US$2.02 billion),” the financial research firm said, noting that falling below this target would require year-on-year declines of 32%, 23% and 22% for the months of October, November and December, respectively.
“Nevertheless, the October GGR data print will provide a clearer gauge given that it is one of the most important months for Macau. We also note that Macau’s Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said on 10 October that the Macau government did not plan to adjust the 2026 GGR target.”
While CreditSights is adopting a wait and see approach, it again pointed to lower GGR spend per visitor for Macau as general visitation continued to soar in September – suggesting a “a smaller proportion of punters within the visitor mix during the month.”
GGR per visitor fell by 15% year-on-year to MOP$5,616 (US$695) in September while the nine-month average stood at MOP$5,814, down from MOP$5,836 (US$722) during the first eight months of the year combined.
“We continue to see a difficult path for gaming spending per capita to meaningfully recover, and we expect the overall GGR to be largely volume driven,” CreditSights said.
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