Some Macau operators could face long-term headwinds because their properties were built to cater for a base mass gaming customer that has failed to return in significant numbers, according to commentary from Truist Securities.
While industry analysts have broadly expressed their lack of excitement around the current state of the Macau gaming market ahead of 3Q26 earnings season – which kicks off on Thursday local time – Truist’s Barry Jonas and Jeremy Jacoby hinted that the slowdown could present a longer-term problem for some, stating, “More broadly we think Macau faces some product-related issues as certain properties were built to cater to base mass gaming.”
The analysts did not single out any specific properties or operators they were referencing although they did state that neither MGM China nor Wynn Macau face any such long-term structural risks because both have an established premium mass positioning.
In the short-term, Jonas and Jacoby noted that there remains limited visibility into Macau’s market dynamics and expectations as it continues to feel the lingering effects from the World Cup and tougher comps, which have contributed to four consecutive months of year-on-year GGR declines.
The September quarter is expected to have been a tough one for all operators on a comparative basis.
In a separate note on Tuesday, J.P. Morgan’s Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh said Macau sentiment has gone from bad to worse with Q3 GGR down 4% year-on-year and stuck at around 85% of pre-COVID levels.
“Over the course of 3Q, hopes for a post-World Cup rebound faded and concerns grew regarding China’s crackdown on offshore wealth and trusts, and more broadly the macro environment there,” they wrote.
Continued softness in August and September came despite already low sentiment and expectations, with J.P. Morgan’s estimates for the quarter coming in lower than the street.
Looking ahead, the investment bank expects 4Q26 GGR to fall 6% year-on-year, which would see FY26 GGR grow by just 1% to MOP$249.1 billion (US$30.8 billion).
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