Macau’s Gross Domestic product is expected to have declined by 2% in the September 2026 quarter, impacted by a slowdown in the gaming sector.
According to latest analysis by the Macau Economic Association (MEA), Q3 GDP is projected at MOP$102.9 billion (US$12.7 billion), although taking into account the first two quarters, GDP between January and September is expected to have grown by between 1.5% and 2.1% to between MOP$311.8 billion and MOP$313.8 billion (US$38.6 billion and US$38.8 billion).
This, it added, suggests that the underlying economy remains on a path of moderate recovery.
The MEA said that although the number of visitor arrivals in August rose by 6.1% year-on-year, the composition shifted: same-day visitor arrivals increased by 11.7%, whereas overnight visitor arrivals fell by 2.4%. This goes somewhere explain why gross gaming revenue has underperformed expectations.
Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) previously reported GGR of MOP$21.9 billion in August and MOP$18.1 billion in September, both down 1.2% year-on-year.
Gaming aside, the recent surge in visitor arrivals has translated into substantial market demand, the MEA said, with key economic indicators such as the number of hotel guests and occupancy rates remaining in the “overheated” or “near-overheated” range.
It added that data on electronic payment transaction volumes in the food and beverage and retail sectors indicate that consumption momentum from both residents and visitors remains robust.
The labor market remains in good condition, with both the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for local residents staying at low levels.
Based on an analysis of various economic indicators, the Macau Economic Climate Index stood at 6.3 in August and 6.1 in September, placing the overall economy within the “stable” range, the MEA explained.
